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COVID 19 Variants – All You Need To Know

Source: Dr KK at Heart Care Foundation of India

Variants – B 1.1.7, B.1.351, P1, B.1.617

B.1.1.7

B.1.351

P.1

B.1.617

B.1.427 and B.1.429

These two variants were first identified in California in February 2021.

Some consequences of emerging variants

Variants of concern might require one or more appropriate public health actions, such as notification to WHO under the International Health Regulations, reporting to CDC, local or regional efforts to control spread, increased testing, or research to determine the effectiveness of vaccines and treatments against the variant. Based on the characteristics of the variant, additional considerations may include the development of new diagnostics or the modification of vaccines or treatments (CDC).

India predictions: Formulas for better understanding of data

  1. Death rate is number of deaths today vs number of cases today
  2. Corrected death rate is number of deaths today vs number of cases 14 days back.
  3. Estimated number of deaths = Reported deaths x 2
  4. Number of expected deaths today is 15% of the number of serious patients 14 days back.
  5. For one symptomatic positive case, there are 10-30 asymptomatic cases and 20 untested cases.
  6. 85-90% positive cases are asymptomatic or have mild infection; 10-15% of positive cases may develop severe infection (require oxygen, steroids, remdesivir); about 5% cases become critical (require ventilator and stronger medicines)

COVID Sutra

COVID-19 pandemic is due to SARS 2 Beta-coronavirus (different from SARS 1 where spread was only in serious cases); Causes mild or atypical illness in 82%, moderate to severe illness in 15%, critical illness in 3% and death in 2.3% cases (15% of admitted serious cases, 71% with comorbidity< Male > Females); affects all but predominantly males (56%, 87% aged 30-79, 10% aged < 20, 3% aged > 80); with variable incubation period days (2-14; mean 5.2 days);  mean time to symptoms 5 days; mean time to pneumonia 9 days, mean time to death 14 days, Mean Time to CT changes 4 Days, Reproductive Number R0 1.5 to 3  (Flu 1.2 and SARS 2), Origin Possibly from Bats (Mammal); spreads through the air (by inhalation of air carrying very small fine droplets and aerosol particles, human to human transmission via large and small droplets or touching inanimate surfaces contaminated with virus . Enters through MM of eyes, nose or mouth and the spike protein gets attached to the ACE2 receptors, which are found in organs throughout the body (heart muscle, CNS, kidneys, blood vessels, liver). Once the virus enters, it turns the cell into a factory, making millions of copies of itself, which are then breathed or coughed out and infect others.

10 Sutras to remember

Some more numbers

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