Covid-19: Experts Warn Of Third Wave After Continuous Rise In Cases Over Last Week
On Monday, India registered 40,134 fresh Covid-19 cases and 422 deaths. With this, the tally of positive cases has reached 3,16,95,958. The Covid-19 cases are seeing an upward trend in positivity rate one week after the other for the first time since mid-May. The decline in the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic was observed towards the end of May.
As per the records, 17 states and Union Territories in India have shown a rise in coronavirus cases on Sunday. The new developments are signaling towards the much speculated third wave. According to experts, the third wave could hit India in the coming weeks of August itself. has reported the maximum surge during the past week.
Among all the states, Kerala has reported a maximum surge in cases over the past few weeks. The state has been gradually witnessing an increase in infections after it registered a number as low as 581 (of fresh cases) on June 14. On Sunday, Kerala reported 3,770 new cases with barely seven days of negative growth in July.
Following the lines of Kerala is the financial capital of India that is, Maharashtra. The state had faced the brunt during both the first and second waves of the coronavirus pandemic. This time too it seems like the state is in a danger zone. On Sunday, the state clocked 6,479 fresh cases. Last week, Maharashtra showed a positivity ratio of 3.4 percent.
The last one week was troublesome for India
According to Covid19india.org, in the last one week, India has reported a rise in the number of cases for consecutive days taking the tally to 2,76,534. It is huge in comparison because till the week before, the total number of fresh infection cases was 2,67,680.
Contrary to what the experts are suggesting, the overall positivity ratio in India is below five percent — a benchmark that the World Health Organisation (WHO) considers as manageable for the Covid-19 pandemic.
While the Ministry of Health and Family Affairs marked the limit at 2.4 percent, according to Covid19india.org, the ratio was at three percent last week.
The top five states which reported maximum cases on Monday are Kerala with 20,728 cases, followed by Maharashtra with 6,479 cases, Andhra Pradesh- 2,287 cases, Tamil Nadu-1,990 cases, and Karnataka with 1,875 cases. India’s recovery rate now stands at 97.35 percent.
October will be the peak point for Third-wave
Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur have predicted that another rise in Covid-19 cases may be seen in India as soon as August. According to a report published in Bloomberg, the researchers have said that the number of cases can go as high as 1,00,000 or, in a worst-case scenario, to 1,50,000.
However, the report has also said that the third wave is unlikely to be as dangerous and deadly as the second wave of the pandemic. For the unknown, during the second wave, India’s daily caseload had crossed the 4,00,00-mark. A mathematical model has been used to derive the conclusion. The same set of researchers had predicted the progression of the second wave in India.
Apart from this, the rise in R-value to greater than 1 in several states around the same time suggests that this rise in active Covid-19 cases is coordinated.
